Nyjer Morgan: Fluke or Fixture?

I wrote a guest post over at Fantasy Baseball 365 (and I’ll be doing another one Saturday) about Nyjer Morgan. Click here to view it.

Link Dumpster: Palmer, Atkins, Young

• Home Run Trot looks at Matt Palmer, and thinks he’s a good option if you want an extra pitcher.
• RotoGraphs disects Michael Young.
• Fantasy Baseball 365 thinks that Garrett Atkins is no longer the player we thought he was.

2 Starts: Week 7

Here are your two-start starters available this week. It is really a crapshoot after Ohlendorf and Outman, so I choose not to rank them after those two. Enjoy.

Ross Ohlendorf, PIT
@WAS, TOR

Josh Outman, OAK
@TB, ARZ 

Scott Richmond, TOR
CWS, @ATL

Clayton Richard, CWS
@TOR, PIT

Sean Gallagher, OAK
@TB, ARZ

Jeff Niemann, TB
OAK, @FLA

Braden Looper, MIL
@STL, @MIN

Joel Pineiro, STL
MIL, KC

Matt Palmer, LAA
@SEA, @lAD

Tim Redding, NYM
@LAD, @BOS

Randy Wolf, LAD
NYM, LAA

Downs to remain Closer after Ryan returns

Scott Downs will remain the closer for the Toronto Blue Jays, even after B.J. Ryan returns.

One day after the Blue Jays indicated that he would remain the team’s closer after B.J. Ryan returned from the disabled list, Downs admitted to being slightly caught off guard by the decision.

“I might have been a little surprised, but that’s not my call,” Downs said.

Interesting. Downs has recorded 3 saves so far this year, and has been impressive in his 16.1 innings of work. Downs has struck out 20 batters, while walking only 1. 

Looking deeper, Downs is a ground ball machine, chugging along at a 59.1% rate. Strangely enough, that is actually down from his previous two seasons. Don’t call Downs a fluke, either. His BABIP is .315, slightly above his career average of .308.

What seems to have spurred on Down’s success is his ability to throw first pitch strikes. From 2006-2008, Downs never surpassed 54.8% first strikes for the season. Now, he’s at 66.7%. Quite the difference. 

Batters have also swung at pitches outside the zone 38.5% of the time (up from 25.5% last year), and made contact 67.3% of the time (down from 79.0%).

I like Scott Downs for the rest of the year, and you should too. Chances are he’s gone by now, but you should pick him up if possible. I’m not sure if he’s trade worthy, as his job security is up in the air.

Mat Gamel Called Up

Mat Gamel has been called up by the Milwaukee Brewers, as reported by Tom Haudricourt.

This guy can definently hit, and reminds me of a left-handed Ryan Braun (In the fact that he can’t field, plays third, and in MIL). Gamel’s scouting report, from The Baseball Cube:

Power: 84
Speed: 45
Contact: 38
Patience: 57

I think Gamel will see decent playing time soon, as I doubt they would call him up if they didn’t need/want him. The Brewers can certainly use a lefty in their lineup, as Prince Fielder is typically the only one.

Gamel might be worth a pickup if you are looking for a rookie to follow this year, have room on your roster, and are willing to wait a week or two. I, for one, have already picked him up as I am starting Russell Branyan and Mark DeRosa at third base. Hopefully he’ll be better than that.

Expect 15+ HR for the rest of the year, and an average around .250-.265.

Stolen Base Leaders

RK	PLAYER	TEAM	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Carl Crawford	TAM	140	26	47	10	2	1	17	22	0	13	27	.336	.397	.457	.855
2	Jacoby Ellsbury	BOS	135	19	40	5	0	1	10	16	3	7	12	.296	.329	.356	.684
3	Bobby Abreu	LAA	113	10	34	5	0	0	12	13	0	17	17	.301	.389	.345	.734
4	Chone Figgins	LAA	114	20	28	4	1	0	7	12	2	18	20	.246	.343	.298	.642
5	Jose Reyes	NYM	140	18	40	7	2	2	15	11	2	18	17	.286	.365	.407	.772
	Michael Bourn	HOU	112	20	33	5	3	1	9	11	3	13	22	.295	.368	.420	.788
7	Coco Crisp	KAN	119	24	31	8	4	3	12	9	2	23	15	.261	.382	.471	.853
	Willy Taveras	CIN	115	24	36	6	1	1	7	9	1	11	13	.313	.377	.409	.786
	Nyjer Morgan	PIT	128	22	39	2	3	0	15	9	5	13	23	.305	.377	.367	.744
	Emmanuel Burriss	SFO	112	10	30	2	0	0	6	9	3	11	18	.268	.344	.286	.63

Before the season, did we think that Bobby Abreu would be on this list? How about Nyjer Morgan? Just goes to show that we really don’t have that much of an idea when it comes to steals.

Believe in Zack Greinke

Zack Greinke is off to possibly the best start in MLB history. As a fantasy player, I was highly skeptical that this had anything to do with his ability, as I thought it would be pure luck. After all, most fast starts are due to fluky BABIP or another luck factor.

However, Zack Greinke appears to be for real. Here is why:

• Greinke’s BABIP is .292. Not ridiculous at all.
• Greinke’s GB/LD/FB percentages are all around last year. This could mean he hasn’t really improved and that this start is unreal, but it could also mean he hasn’t been lucky with the way hitters are hitting the ball.
• Greinke is getting ahead of hitters slightly better than last year, and he is forcing batters to reach out of the zone for pitches, and they have obliged.

Even with all these indicators, there is one big problem. He hasn’t allowed a HR yet. Not going to be able to keep that up this year, no matter what he does. He will also not be able to  keep an ERA of 0.40 this year. But, he will be able to keep his ERA down if he continues his work.

Trying to project Greinke’s numbers this year is a really difficult task, but let’s give it a shot:

19 W, 2.85 ERA, 9 K/9, 2.25 BB/9

Sell High: Raul Ibanez

So far this season, Raul Ibanez is batting .360, with 8 HR and 21 RBI. At this pace, Raul will hit 59 homers, with 155 RBI. Absolutely ridiculous. However, the indicators are all there to show that Raul will have problems keeping this pace. Although that seems like an obvious statement, it still is something that needs to be examined. Here are 4 reasons Raul will decline this season.

1. History

Raul has hit 25 or more homers once in his career, back in 2006. Other than that, Ibanez is good for 20-24 each season. At this point in his career, his power numbers shouldn’t be improving.

2. BABIP

For his career, Raul’s Batting Average on Balls In Play has been .311. This year, he’s at a .348 clip. This will come down to around .320 at least, slicing his average down to a more reasonable level.

3. LD%, GB%, FB%

For someone having a monster start, Ibanez sure isn’t making great contact with the ball. His LD% is down 4%, and his GB% has taken on the difference. For someone trying to be a power hitter, you don’t wan’t to hit the ball on the ground 45% of the time. This will increase the effect of a lowered BABIP.

4. HR/FB%

In 2009, 26.7% of Raul’s fly balls have left the yard. That is an amazing rate usually saved for guys such as Russell Branyan and Adam Dunn. Ibanez’s career rate is 12.4%, so expect this to go down as well.

Updating Projections

With Ibanez hitting at this clip for the month, projections need to be updated. To be brief, if we expected Raul to hit 20 HR this year, we wouldn’t assume that he will only hit 12 the rest of the season. Instead, we factor in the remainder of the season, and adjust out original guesses.

For the 2009 season: .306, 26 HR, 113 RBI

Men on Fire: Week 4

Instead of compling a whole lineup, I think I’ll try just using the top three position players, top starter, and top reliever. Quick, simple, effecient.

Jorge Cantu, CI, FLA
.346, 4 HR, 14 RBI

Carl Crawford, OF, TB
.385, 11 SB

Raul Ibanez, OF, PHI
.500, 3 HR, 9 RBI

Justin Verlander, SP, DET
14 IP, 20 K, 0.64 ERA, 2 W

Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD
2.2 IP, 6 K, 0.00 ER, 2 W, SV

News about Roto Rat

You may have noticed that there hasn’t been much going on here recently. l be getting back on the horse Sunday, so stop by then.

Also, RR will be moving to MVN, where MLB Notebook  is hosted. which I hope will stream line things for me.